Outcome Predictor

[outcome-calculator]

Created By

Gez Bowman CO, MBAPO

Assumptions

weighting for IBC ~ proportional to weighting for DWT

IB standing xray vs IB supine xray

References

“AIS progression peaks during the growth period and then slows and stabilizes, in most cases, toward the end of skeletal maturity”

Little DG, Song KM, Katz D, et al. Relationship of peak height velocity to other maturity indicators in idiopathic scoliosis in girls. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2000;82(5):685-93.

“treatment success increased with longer hours of brace wear”

Weinstein, S.L.; Dolan, L.A.; Wright, J.G.; Dobbs, M.B. Effects of Bracing in Adolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis. N. Engl. J. Med. 2013, 369, 1512–1521

“IBC has been proven to be a strong predictor of brace treatment failure”

Wong, L.P.K.; Cheung, P.W.H.; Cheung, J.P.Y. Curve Type, Flexibility, Correction, and Rotation Are Predictors of Curve Progression in Patients with Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Undergoing Conservative Treatment: A Systematic Review. Bone Jt. J. 2022, 104, 424–432

“results confirm the relevant role of IBC in predicting the end of growth results”

Donzelli, S.; Fregna, G.; Zaina, F.; Livetti, G.; Reitano, M.C.; Negrini, S. Predictors of Clinically Meaningful Results of Bracing in a Large Cohort of Adolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis Reaching the End of Conservative Treatment. Children 2023, 10, 719

“The most important predicting factors for treatment success are in-brace correction and compliance, followed by curve magnitude and early growth stage.”

Karavidas N. Bracing In The Treatment Of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis: Evidence To Date. Adolesc Health Med Ther. 2019 Oct 8;10:153-172.

“Skeletal maturity and curve magnitude have strong predictive value for future curve progression.”

Johnson MA, Flynn JM, Anari JB, Gohel S, Cahill PJ, Winell JJ, Baldwin KD. Risk of Scoliosis Progression in Nonoperatively Treated Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Based on Skeletal Maturity. J Pediatr Orthop. 2021 Oct 1;41(9):543-548.

“The type and quality of treatment applied, the compliance to treatment and the dosage of brace-wear are recognised as determinants of final results.”

Weinstein SL, Dolan LA, Wright JG, Dobbs MB. Design of the Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST). Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2013 Oct 1;38(21):1832-41.

“for progression over 40° the major predictor is Cobb degrees at start”

Donzelli S, Zaina F, Negrini S. Predicting scoliosis progression: a challenge for researchers and clinicians. EClinicalMedicine. 2020 Jan 6;18:100244.

“success rate of bracing is 70–75% subjected to initial brace correction quality, brace design, treatment compliance, adequate duration as well as clinical monitoring of X-ray at each clinical visit”

Weinstein SL, Dolan LA, Wright JG, Dobbs MB. Design of the Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST). Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2013 Oct 1;38(21):1832-41.

Derivations

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